EXPECTED DA FEOM JAN 2013 IS 8 %

Central Government Employees, Pensioners and family Pensioners may get Dearness Allowance of 80% with effect from 1st January 2013

The price index which is called as AICPI – IW (All India Consumer price Index for industrial workers with the base as 2001=100) for the month of September 2012 has been issued by Government.

Click here to reade the press release issued by Governement for publishing AICPI-IW for the month of September 2012

This is the table All India consumer price index AICPI-IW for the period from January 2012 to September 2012

Month	AICPI-IW
Jan 2012	198
Feb 2012	199
Mar 2012	201
Apr 2012	205
May 2012	206
Jun 2012	208
Jul 2012	212
Aug 2012	214
Sep 2012	215
Oct 2012	Will be released in the last week of November 2012
Nov 2012	Will be released in the last week of December 2012
Dec 2012	Will be released in the last week of January 2012

The above indices from Jan 2012 to Sept 2012, require special mention here as Calculation of expected Dearness Allowance for central government employees, Central Government Pensioners and central government family pensioners with effect from 1st January 2013 need these indices.

The expected Dearness Allowance with effect from January 2013

To calculate Dearness Allowance with effect from January 2013 we require AICPI (IW) for previous 12 months.

Dearness Allowance with effect from 1st January every year	(Average of AICPI-IW for the months from January to December of previous year – 115.76)X100/115.76
Dearness Allowance with effect from 1st July every year	(Average of AICPI-IW for the months from July of previous year to June of this year – 115.76)X100/115.76
115.76 is a factor which converts 1982 series AICPI (IW) (Base 1982=100), which was applicable prior to 6CPC to 2001 series AICPIW (Base 2001=100). In turn, This is arrived at by dividing the 1982 series AICPI by a linking factor which is 4.63 (536/4.63=115.76)

To estimate the Dearness Allowance that Central Government Employees and Pensioners will be getting with effect from 1st January 2013 based on AICPI-IW, we will consider following 4 Scenario

	Scenario 1 (No Inflation)	Scenario 2 ( Inflation contained)	Scenario 3(Sameinflationarytrend)	Scenario 4 (More inflation)
Month	AICPI-IW	AICPI-IW	AICPI-IW	AICPI-IW
Jan 2012	198	198	198	198
Feb 2012	199	199	199	199
Mar 2012	201	201	201	201
Apr 2012	205	205	205	205
May 2012	206	206	206	206
Jun 2012	208	208	208	208
Jul 2012	212	212	212	212
Aug 2012	214	214	214	214
Sep 2012	215	215	215	215
Oct 2012 (expected)	215	210	216	217
Nov 2012 (expected)	215	210	217	219
Dec 2012 (expected)	215	210	218	221
Expected DA	80%	79%	80%	81%